Updated Monday 3:30 p.m.
Aside from New Year's Day, we have spent 22 of the past 23 days below normal for high temperature.
Now, it's time to go play on the other side of the fence.
Just a day after snow blanketed the region once again, a much warmer and wetter pattern is taking shape and we have our sights set on 50 degrees for highs by Wednesday -- the first 50 degree reading since Dec. 6.
But the warm weather comes with a price, and that is the potential for river flooding as all this rain runs off into the rivers instead of falling as snow. FLOOD WATCHES are now in effect for all Western Washington rivers.
Tonight, we'll still be in our break, with just scattered showers and lows near 40. (40? Really? Who needs an extra blanket tonight? :) )
Rain returns early Tuesday, and it'll be around for a while, increasing in intensity as we get into the afternoon and evening -- although it looks like the North-Central Puget Sound and general Sequim/Port Townsend/Whidbey Island areas will get the benefit of the Olympic Rain Shadow at times through the event, keeping rainfall lighter between Seattle and Everett and over toward the Olympic Peninsula. (Sort of the "anti-Convergence Zone" if you will.)
It'll also be breezy, but not too bad, with southerly wind gusts to 30-35 mph in the central Puget Sound area, and maybe some south/southeast gusts to 40-45 mph in the north interior and along the coast. Highs Tuesday will be in the mid-upper 40s.
The rain will be relentless through Tuesday night and Wednesday, and even into Wednesday night. Lows Tuesday night won't budge much -- sticking in the mid 40s, and then highs Wednesday should climb to around 50. Still breezy through the period as well with winds staying in the 30-40 mph gust range.
For the period, forecasting models indicate as much as 5-10 inches of rain in the mountains in general, with perhaps 15-20 inches along the southwestern face of the Olympics. Could see 6" of rain along the coast and southwest interior, 4" of rain in the Seattle-Tacoma area over the two days, and 1-2" in the northern interior where the rain shadow will help a bit.
Aside from river flooding, that's also a recipe for urban and creek flooding. Keep those storm drains clear.
The rain tapers off Thursday morning, leaving us with just a few scattered showers for the afternoon and highs staying in the mid 40s.
Friday looks...dry. Yes, dry. And maybe even partly sunny. Highs will be in the mid 40s. Meteorologists might declare it a statewide holiday :)
Dry weather holds into Saturday, although cloudier. That's in advance of another bit of rain Saturday night into Sunday, but this one looks weak and just some good ol' Seattle rain. Highs both days will stay in the mid 40s.
Light showers return for Monday, but long range models keep it fairly tranquil next week. Let's just hope that's not Lucy holding the football out for us :)
Scott Sistek
KOMONews.Com Meteorologist
